We’re rapidly approaching AGI … AI Agents are here and getting smarter … the S&P turns positive on the year … a technical reason to remain bullish from Luke Lango
Imagine a day in the very near future when you tell your AI Agent, “Order what I need for taco night.”
Immediately, the cutting-edge technology goes to work…
Knowing your past preferences, it checks your Smart Refrigerator and notices you’re out of ground beef. Your favorite brand immediately goes into your Amazon Prime basket.
Tomatoes? You’re good there. But you’re out of tortillas, and you’re low on margarita mix. Your agent makes the necessary updates to your cart.
A few items later and Whole Foods is fulfilling your order, preparing a “taco night” that’s exactly as you like it.
We’re not far from this being your normal Tuesday evening.
Let’s rewind to the start of the year…
Here’s OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman in one of his blog posts from January:
We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.
We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.
We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.
To make sure we’re all on the same page, “AGI” stands for “artificial general intelligence.” It refers to the watershed moment when an AI system can match or exceed the cognitive ability of the smartest human across any task.
As to “AI agents,” I described one to begin today’s Digest. But let’s go to our macro investing expert, Eric Fry, for more:
The next big thing in AI is coming… and they’re called AI agents.
AI agents are “smart” AI applications that can perceive their environment and act accordingly…
In short, AI agents extend what AI chatbots can do. They have the potential to be personal assistants… travel agents… educators… DJs… and will play thousands of other roles we haven’t yet dreamed of.
In recent months, we’ve highlighted Eric’s research that has tracked the “Road to AGI” as well as agentic AI applications.
His quick takeaway? AGI is likely arriving far sooner than we believed just months ago, and AI agents already are changing our day-to-day lives.
This means that the time to invest is now – and the wealth implications are enormous.
Zeroing in on AI agents, Eric just profiled Amazon’s foray into the space – Nova Act
Here’s Eric with more details:
[Nova Act] is specifically designed to perform tasks within web browsers, essentially doing the work for you.
Unlike the chatbots we’re used to that only respond to our commands, Nova Act takes action all on its own…
Beyond “taco night” from earlier, here are just a few examples of what this looks like in day-to-day terms:
- “Plan a dinner party for Friday.”
It will check your calendar, suggest guest lists, order groceries, book a house cleaner, and send out invites.
- “Plan a birthday gift for my wife. She loves travel and skincare.”
The agent will suggest trending skincare brands, check gift guides, even pre-fill a custom note, and recommend a spa Airbnb getaway.
- “When I say, ‘vacation mode,’ do everything.”
Your agent will turn off lights, set the alarm, reroute packages, lower thermostat, and notify neighbors or smart cameras.
Limited versions of these capabilities are already here, and robust versions with startling accuracy are fast approaching. Back to Eric:
Amazon claims Nova Act has over 90% accuracy, even with tasks that normally confuse other AI agent models – like picking dates or handling those annoying pop-up windows.
As to broader “AGI,” that’s also hurtling toward us
Eric has been monitoring this “Road to AGI” for many months. Last September, he began the clock on his “1,000 Days to AGI” countdown.
In January, based on the Altman blog post I referenced earlier, Eric accelerated his timeline:
I’m convinced 1,000 days is the far end of when we’ll achieve this milestone. AGI could be upon us much sooner.
Immense technological changes are coming. Those who understand and embrace these changes can set themselves up to build wealth on a larger scale than ever before.
Because of AGI, we could be entering into the greatest period of wealth creation that mankind has ever known.
There are no pure-play “AGI” companies at present, but multiple ways to invest in AGI are available.
We’ve seen the rise of AI Builders (the companies building AI data centers, making AI chips, running AI fabs, etc.), and now we’re watching AI Appliers take the baton (the companies deploying new AI applications on top of this infrastructure). But there isn’t an abundance of pure “AGI” stocks (Altman’s OpenAI is a private company).
Here’s Eric with his workaround:
What the market does offer, though, is an array of indirect plays on the race toward AGI.
My team and I have been focusing on the “next wave” of stocks that do not yet reflect their AI-powered growth potential.
So, to take advantage of this current “pre-AGI” market, I’ve identified several companies are well positioned to benefit from the race toward AGI…
You can learn more about the specific AGI-related stocks that Eric recommends in Fry’s Investment Report right here.
I’ll note that if you’re especially drawn to the idea of investing in AI agents, Eric’s special report The Next Trillion-Dollar AI Opportunity: How Agents Will Change Everything includes his favorite way to play it. You can learn how to access that report here.
By the way, tomorrow, Eric will drop a new batch of AGI research. More details to come.
The S&P has climbed back into positive territory on the year – time for reflection?
Yesterday, the S&P recouped its 2025 losses.
While it remains about 4% below its all-time high from February, the return to “positive” is no small feat considering where we were just weeks ago.
Yesterday, I had a conversation with our Editor-in-Chief and co-Digest writer Luis Hernandez, in which he asked a question that prompted an interesting conversation.
In short, Luis wondered how the typical investor handled the recent volatility. His question morphed into a conversation about the emotional aspect of investing, long-term goals, buying when scared, and selling when scared, among related threads.
Turning to you, with the market back to even on year, how did you handle the recent volatility? And does your answer reveal a change you’d like to make to your market approach looking forward?
A few questions to consider:
- When stocks were down, say, 17%, with seemingly no floor beneath them, did you buy any positions on your watchlist? Or was the anxiety too great?
- When the market was cratering, did fear result in your selling of a stock that you’re now rethinking (potentially, regretting)?
- If you could re-do the last three months, what would you do differently, and why?
With the S&P back to even, you might assess whether your portfolio has recovered similarly. If it hasn’t, that doesn’t necessarily mean something is wrong, but it might reveal an insight that you’ll find valuable.
Finally, looking for a reason to feel bullish today?
Take a look at the S&P 500’s 250-day moving average (MA).
To make sure we’re all on the same page, a moving average is a line on a chart showing the average of some stated number of prior days’ worth of asset prices. Moving averages provide investors and traders helpful perspective on market momentum.
Last Thursday, the S&P officially retook this key level. From a technical perspective, this is significant. Our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango calls it “arguably the most important trendline in the market.”
Here he is explaining:
Going back to 1990, whenever the S&P 500 has spent 20 or more days under its 250-day moving average and then reclaimed it, we were typically at the beginning of a major rebound.
This has happened 15 times since 1990. In 14 of those 15 cases, stocks were higher a year later.
Average max return? About 20%.
As you can see below, we’ve retaken the 250-day MA with conviction in recent days.
Now, there are reasonable odds that the market will “back and fill” the recent gains, potentially retesting the 250-MA as support. After all, many of the S&P’s technical indicators (such as its Relative Strength Indicator) reveal stretched conditions that are approaching “overbought” technical levels.
But let’s not confuse a short-term consolidation of recent gains with the end of a longer-term uptrend.
Luke believes that any pullback stocks might experience in the coming weeks is a smaller move within a far more powerful surge as we push into summer.
Here’s his specific roadmap for what’s coming from Monday’s Daily Notes in Innovation Investor:
- May brings a flood of trade deals with allies like India, South Korea, and Japan.
- June delivers a full-blown trade agreement with China and the first Fed rate cut of 2025.
- July brings tax cuts and strong Q2 earnings.
- August caps it off with a re-rating of valuations and likely new all-time highs for the S&P 500.
Stay long. Stay strong. Don’t overthink it.
The tide has turned. The trade war truce has landed. Rate cuts are coming. Tax cuts are coming. Earnings are strong. The AI Boom is red-hot. And the stock market is on a mission to hit new highs this summer.
We’ll keep you updated on all these stories here in the Digest.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
