The global temperature data for April 2025 is rolling in. NOAA and NASA updated their datasets on May 9th, and Berkeley Earth released its update on May 13th.
In NOAA’s report (the data referenced in ForecastEx forecast contracts), April 2025 temperatures were 1.22°C (2.20°F) above the 20th-century average (calculated from 1901 to 2000) and 1.38°C (2.49°F) above the preindustrial average (calculated from 1850-1900). This makes April 2025 the second-warmest April globally in NOAA’s 176-year record, just 0.07°C (0.13°F) shy of the record set in April 2024.
This keeps April consistent with the trend of 2025 being near or slightly below record levels: January was the warmest January on record, February was the 3rd warmest February, and March was tied for the 3rd warmest March.
Cumulatively, year-to-date (January through April) temperatures have been the second-warmest such period in NOAA’s record, with a temperature 1.28°C (2.30°F) higher than the 20th-century average and 1.44°C (2.78°F) higher than the preindustrial average.
Source: NOAA Global Climate Report
Source: NOAA Global Climate Report
Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2025
Long-term warming is driven primarily by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations from human activities like fossil fuel burning, but on monthly to decade timescales, global temperature variability is associated with a myriad of other drivers, both natural (like the state of El Niño/La Niña, volcanic aerosols, the 11-year solar cycle) and a result of human activity (like changes in the amount and location of sulfate aerosol emissions).
The primary driver of monthly to annual variability in global temperature is the state of El Niño/La Niña, where El Niños are associated with warming fluctuations and La Niñas are associated with cooling fluctuations. We are currently neither in an El Niño nor a La Niña state (i.e., “ENSO neutral”) after briefly experiencing a weak La Niña. NOAA’s May 8th El Niño/La Niña discussion forecasts over a 70% chance that we remain in neutral conditions through August and over a 50% chance that we remain in neutral conditions through October (with La Niña more likely than El Niño). Since there is a several-month delay between the evolution of El Niños/La Niñas and their subsequent imprint on global temperature, this forecast of neutral conditions into the fall effectively means that it is unlikely this oscillation will substantially impact global temperature in 2025.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA publishes a statistical forecast estimating the potential rankings of global annual temperatures by year-end, based on year-to-date data. This calculation does not utilize any weather or climate prediction models; instead, it relies on statistical simulations of possible outcomes based on historical monthly variability in global temperature. This method has the potential to neglect important information if there were a strong consensus regarding the progression of El Niño or La Niña, but the anticipated continuation of neutral conditions suggests that this approach is likely valid in this context. According to this analysis, 2025 has only a 3.4% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record. Berkeley Earth has the number notably higher at 18% for their dataset.
Ramifications for 2025 Global Temperature Prediction Markets
The ForecastEx prediction markets most directly related to the evolution of 2025 global temperatures are listed below.
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?
As of May 13th, the “Yes” Forecast Contract was trading at 27%. This is higher than Berkeley Earth’s forecast of 18% and well above NOAA’s internal model, which stands at 3.4%. Because the contract resolves based on NOAA data, the “Yes” option on this contract appears to be considerably overpriced right now.
Will the average Global Temperature in 2025 be greater than 1.3°C (2.34°F) above the 20th-century average?
As of May 13, the “Yes” Forecast Contract traded at 33%. We are currently below 1.3°C (year to date is at 1.28°C, see first two figures above). The expected trend for the rest of the year is more likely downwards rather than upwards (for instance, La Niña is more probable than El Niño), and there is an ever-present background possibility of an unpredicted volcanic eruption that causes cooling. Thus, this “Yes” might be a tad overpriced.
Will the Average Global Temperature for any month be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2025?
The Paris Agreement’s temperature targets of 1.5°C and 2.0°C refer to preindustrial levels, defined as the average global temperature between 1850 and 1900. However, the NOAA global temperature dataset uses the 1901–2000 average as its default baseline. Consequently, to align NOAA’s data with the preindustrial baseline relevant to the Paris Agreement, an offset of 0.16°C must be added. When we add that offset to the 2025 monthly values that have come in so far, we get:
January reported by NOAA: 1.33°C; above preindustrial: 1.49°C
February reported by NOAA: 1.26°C; above preindustrial: 1.42°C
March reported by NOAA: 1.31°C; above preindustrial: 1.47°C
April reported by NOAA: 1.22°C; above preindustrial: 1.38°C
Starting from the beginning of 2022, below is what NOAA temperature values look like relative to preindustrial, where the red line is the 1.75°C threshold specified in the Forecast Contract.
Data from NOAA, plotted in Microsoft Excel.
As of May 13th, the “Yes” for this Forecast Contract was trading at 11%. This is a low probability, but again, since the expected trend for the rest of the year is more likely downwards rather than upwards, it seems exceptionally unlikely that a warming fluctuation large enough to breach the red 1.75°C threshold is in the cards in the next eight months. Thus, this “Yes” seems overpriced as well.
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Originally Posted on May 14, 2025
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