Why Green Energy is Poised to Lead the New Bull Market (TSLA, CLNV, BE, PLUG, BEP, ENPH, FSLR, NIO)

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    The clean energy industry is poised for a period of rapid growth in coming years due to a number of factors, including the falling cost of renewable energy technologies, the increasing demand for clean energy from governments and businesses, and the growing public awareness of the need to address climate change.

    Technological advances, economies of scale, and government subsidies are big drivers in this story and serve to set this theme apart from the rest of the market in terms of tailwinds.

    The growth of the clean energy industry is intimately tied to increasing demand for clean energy from governments and businesses. Governments around the world have already set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And huge subsidies are up for grabs tied to those targets.

    That dynamic is poised to drive a tsunami of investment in clean energy technologies.

    Businesses are also increasingly recognizing the need to reduce their environmental impact both from a genuine sense of the need to shape a viable world and a recognition of the reputational value of positioning well in the game theory landscape created by ESG pressure and public resource access.

    This is leading to capital flows supporting clean energy technologies.

    Finally, public awareness of the need to address climate change is clearly becoming dominant as a social dynamic leading to increased demand for clean energy products and services.

    As more people become aware of the threat of climate change, carbon footprint reduction is effectively going viral driving demand for clean energy technologies, such as solar panels and electric cars. But those technologies are old news. New innovations may still be set to emerge. In fact, we have some picks below that fit this emerging narrative.

    One of the most interesting developments driving this clean energy movement is the Biden Administration’s “Inflation Reduction Act” passed last year, which has recently been revealed by Goldman Sachs analysts as consisting of green subsidies worth $1.2 trillion.

    That’s “Trillion” with a “T”.

    No other theme comes close to this level of financial tailwind. If we are indeed heading into a new bull market cycle—as sentiment and breadth data suggest—then green energy sets up as a likely leadership group.

    With that in mind, we take a closer look below at a few interesting opportunities in the green energy space.

     

    Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq:TSLA) didn’t really satisfy the market with its Q1 earnings. The million-dollar question heading into Tesla’s (TSLA) 1Q23 earnings report was whether the electric vehicle maker’s margins would at least meet expectations following a series of price cuts in the U.S. and China.

    Investors didn’t receive the answer they were looking for as automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) cratered by five percentage points sequentially to about 16%, while TSLA’s overall gross margin of 19% fell well short of estimates. Some may recall that CFO Zachary Kirkhorn stated that FY23 automotive gross margin should stay above 20% for FY23, but a steep drop in ASPs this quarter pushed the metric below that floor level.

    Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq:TSLA) profitability and cash flow on a yr/yr basis is heading in reverse. Specifically, net income and free cash flow tumbled by 22% and 80%, respectively. Making matters worse for the stock, CEO Elon Musk signaled during the earnings call that more price cuts could be on the horizon, stating that he intends to continue leveraging the company’s position as a cost leader.

    Essentially, Musk is creating a price war in the EV market — whether he wants to admit it or not — in order to protect/gain market share and grow volumes, at the expense of profits. This isn’t a positive development for other EV makers, especially for up-and-coming companies like Rivian (RIVN) or Lucid Group (LCID) that are already being squeezed by manufacturing inefficiencies due to low production volumes.

    It’s also not a positive for TSLA — at least, not in the short-term. The stock is not cheap, trading with a Forward P/E of nearly 50x. With the “E” component of that valuation metric set to decline, the “P” component will have to follow suit in order to avoid a valuation that truly reaches nose-bleed levels.

    Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq:TSLA) managed to rope in revenues totaling $24.3B in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 37.2%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($22.5B against $26.7B, respectively).

     

    Clean Vision Corp. (OTC US:CLNV) is a more speculative player, but it also may be a diamond in the dirt right now, set to take on a bigger role in this green energy narrative. One to watch.

    CLNV is particularly interesting because it ties all of these themes together with a model for converting waste plastic into clean energy. It’s a scalable model with huge upside in terms of market share. CLNV is quietly becoming the dominant game in town in that niche. And it could be a winner-take-all niche given the moat being established.

    Clean Vision Corp. (OTC US:CLNV) consists of two main operating segments: Clean-Seas, which uses chemical recycling of plastic waste to produce clean fuels, and Ecocell, a licensed technology focused on producing a hydrogen-based fuel cell.

    The long-term vision is to tie these two segments together by turning sea-borne plastic waste into hydrogen fuel—directly cleaning the world and producing clean fuel from the waste. It’s an environmental enthusiast’s dream. Clean-Seas uses a chemical process known as “pyrolysis” to convert the waste plastic back into its original hydrocarbon form, which can then be refined into fuels to power the world.

    The most powerful part of this story is the company’s Plastic Conversion Network (PCN). At this point, the company plans to have a global network of PCN facilities operating at large scale, with the ability to convert into hydrogen-based clean fuel within the next 18 months.

    Clean-Seas is currently scaling up, including LOI’s and deals in negotiation, as well as currently owned and operating facilities. In all, the company has stated that it is heading toward processing 2,600 tons of plastic per day through its global PCN network.

    Clean Vision Corp. (OTC US:CLNV) also just got much more interesting this week thanks to the company’s tweet reading: “Clean Vision $CLNV is pleased to announce CEO Dan Bates returns from West Virginia after discussions with officials on responsible plastic waste to energy solutions currently being deployed by @cleanseasinc. More updates & news coming out of WV very soon! #CleanSeasMovement.” West Virginia is starting to invest at massive scale, recently booking a $100M investment in a South Korean biotech play and courting steel giant Nucor (NUE). If CLNV is spreading roots there as well, we could see some very big headlines on the way that spark some fireworks here. Stay tuned.

     

    Plug Power Inc. (Nasdaq:PLUG) provides alternative energy technology, which focuses on the design, development, commercialization, and manufacture of hydrogen and fuel cell systems used primarily for the material handling and stationary power markets.

    Its fuel cell system solution is designed to replace lead-acid batteries in electric material handling vehicles and industrial trucks for some distribution and manufacturing businesses.

    Plug Power Inc. (Nasdaq:PLUG) recently announced it manufactured 122MW of Plug’s 1MW electrolyzer stack platform in Q1 2023, an all-time high for the Company and the industry for PEM electrolyzers. Additionally, Plug shipped nearly 1,000 stacks for specialty applications, ranging from a few hundred watts to 150kW, totaling 5.7MW. Plug is on track to ramp its 2.5GW gigafactory in Rochester, NY to 100MW per month in mid-Q2 2023, with plans to further increase output in Q3 2023.

    Electrolyzers are integral to Plug’s green hydrogen ecosystem. Plug’s PEM stacks enable electrolysis of water using renewable electricity to split water into green hydrogen and oxygen. Plug offers an easy-to-deploy containerized electrolyzer solution, with short lead times to enable decarbonization across multiple applications including hard to abate industries.

    Plug electrolyzers are being deployed globally with companies such as New Fortress Energy, Uniper and Irving Oil. Additionally, Plug electrolyzers have been installed at the Company’s green hydrogen plant in Georgia, and will be deployed at plants under development in New York, Tennessee, Texas, California, and Belgium. By 2025, Plug expects to produce 500 tons per day of liquid green hydrogen in the US, equivalent to 4.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions. By 2028, Plug expects to produce 1,000 tons per day of liquid green hydrogen.

    Even in light of this news, PLUG has had a rough past week of trading action, with shares sinking something like -5% in that time. That said, chart support is nearby, and we may be in the process of constructing a nice setup for some movement back the other way.

    Plug Power Inc. (Nasdaq:PLUG) managed to rope in revenues totaling $220.7M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 36.3%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels exceeding current liabilities ($2.2B against $635.3M).

     

    Other interesting names in the green energy space include: Bloom Energy Corp. (NYSE:BE), Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (NYSE:BEP), Enphase Energy Inc. (Nasdaq:ENPH), First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq:FSLR), and NIO Inc. ADR (NYSE:NIO).

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