Trump Vs Biden: New Poll Reveals Shift In 2024 Race As Public Divided On Presidents’ Legacies

In a recent CNN poll, former President Donald Trump is found to be leading President Joe Biden in the prospective 2024 presidential race, with public opinions about their presidencies varying significantly.

What Happened: The poll, carried out by SSRS and reported by CNN, reveals that Trump’s support among registered voters remains steady at 49% in a direct contest against Biden, who is at 43%. This result does not differ significantly from CNN’s previous national poll on the race conducted in January.

Interestingly, 55% of Americans now view Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% perceive it as a failure. On the other hand, 61% of Americans believe Biden’s presidency has been a failure so far, while 39% consider it a success.

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Public opinion of former presidents usually improves over time, but no other modern president has sought a return to power after an electoral defeat. Biden’s performance in office has been viewed negatively for much of his presidency.

When independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are factored into the matchup, Trump secures 42% to Biden’s 33%, with Kennedy at 16%, West at 4%, and Stein at 3%.

The SSRS conducted the poll from April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults, including 967 registered voters.

Why It Matters: Predicting the potential outcome of a Biden vs. Trump contest in the 2024 election has been a complex task. 

Historical trends suggest that Biden’s chances might be slim. His 13th quarter in office saw an average job approval rating of 38.7%, the lowest among the nine past presidents elected to their first terms, according to Gallup. 

The analytics firm noted that no other president elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 had a lower rating than Biden. The poll was conducted from April 1-22.

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