E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5206.50, up 51.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,195.50, up 194.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures carried last week’s bullish tailwinds to close sharply higher on Monday. The E-mini S&P cleared major three-star resistance, a level specifically noted here yesterday, at 5192.25-5197.25, which begins neutralizing the selling that kicked in from April 12th-15th. While price action still must chew through supply created from the whipsaw action dating back to the start of April when the S&P came of its fresh record high, our more Bullish Bias will stand until a failure to hold major three-star support at 5184.75-5190.50. Furthermore, only a close back below 5145.50-5148.50 is now needed to potentially turn momentum bearish.
The E-mini NQ is still working through resistance at 18,179, which now aligns with yesterday’s spike high of 18,198, but we see the bulls in the driver’s seat while holding above 18,042-18,050.
With the economic calendar light before China Trade Balance data Wednesday night, the Bank of England Thursday morning, and fresh May Michigan Consumer data Friday, price action will be susceptible to headlines, Fed speak, and Treasury auctions. Today, traders should keep an ear out for Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-voter until 2026) at 10:30 am CT, and a 3-year Note auction at noon CT.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5213-5218.75***, 5243.25-5246.25***
Pivot: 5206.50
Support: 5197.25-5199**, 5184.75-5190.25***, 5174**, 5166.75-5167**, 5154.75-5157***, 5145.50-5148.50***, 5137.25*, 5126.75-5127.75**, 5118.75**, 5104.50-5109.25***, 5100.75**, 5087-5091.50****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,179-18,198***, 18,223-18,227**, 18,326-18,339***
Pivot: 18,145
Support: 18,099-18,110**, 18,042-18,050***, 18,004*, 17,949-17,962**, 17,893-17,911***, 17,805-17,808*, 17,743-17,793*** 17,649-17,686****
Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 78.48, up 0.37
WTI Crude Oil futures continue the trend lower, eyeing a seventh straight lower high on today’s session. Price action must clear yesterday’s 79.09 in order to break the trend. However, we do have a well-defined range from 79.00 down to 77.91 which traded in less than five minutes yesterday upon reports Hamas accepted a ceasefire deal at negotiations in Egypt, before Israel followed saying the proposal was far from their demands. This range is being violated to the downside at the onset of U.S. hours. Regardless of geopolitics the trend has been clearly negative. Like we noted yesterday, we do see value at this range, the upper end of the consolidation before the mid-March breakout, but price action is certainly susceptible to testing 76.90-76.98, aligning with the March 12th chart gap.
The EIA will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT today, API releases its private weekly survey at 3:30 pm CT, and tomorrow we get the EIA’s official weekly data at 9:30 am CT.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 79.00-79.09**, 79.49-79.63**, 79.87-79.90**, 80.31-80.44***, 81.24***, 81.57**, 81.80-81.93***
Pivot: 78.41-78.48
Support: 77.91-78.11***, 76.90-76.98***
Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2331.2, up 22.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 27.614, up 0.924
It is easy to get stuck in the forest and miss the trees. This is especially true when a trend turns violent. In such a pullback as sharp as we have seen across Gold and Silver futures it becomes ever-important as a risk manager to forecast the potential depth of the downside. In doing so, one might surrender strong upside conviction. At the end of the day, one does not know in the thick of volatility whether a trend is broken or shaking out. For instance, look at Coffee losing more than 20% from its peak during the same timeframe, relative to Silver’s 12% correction and Gold’s 7% correction. With that said, we would like to believe the weekly chart for Gold and Silver remain very constructive. Yesterday, we highlighted the bull-flag developing for Gold. Ultimately, this is a decade long breakout playing out, and although Silver has failed to clear $30, and has traded nowhere near its record of $50, in March it decisively broke a down trend line from its 2011 record high. Navigating the ongoing volatility will remain tough, and there is no perfect recipe to manage risk, but we welcome you to connect with our trade desk, we would love to share some of our strategies with you.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2338-2339.5***, 2347.7***, 2353-2358.9***, 2364.4-2367***
Pivot: 2325.3-2330.5
Support: 2319.4-2322.9**, 2312.7-2314.5**, 2300.6-2305.8**, 2291.5-2296.2**, 2281.8-2285.2***, 2257.1***, 2246.6***, 2231.2-2238.2****
Silver (July)
Resistance: 27.66-27.76***, 27.91-27.93**, 28.02-28.22***
Pivot: 27.55
Support: 27.39-27.44**, 27.15-27.28***, 27.01**, 26.89-26.91**, 26.65-26.69***, 26.17-26.30****, 25.89-25.95**, 25.32-25.47***
Micro Bitcoin (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63,585, up 995
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 64,750-64,975**, 65,335*, 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646***
Pivot: 63,585-64,100
Support: 62,210-62,590***, 60,704-61,116***,59,765**, 56,472-57,355***, 55,000-55,290***, 52,240***, 47,000****
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Originally Posted May 7, 2024 – The Tailwinds Continue But to Where?
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