Get Ready for the Coming Oil Crisis (SBOW, VKIN, CPE, RRC, XOM, CVX, SM, CEI, OIH)

The landscape is in place for a coming supply shortage crisis in the oil market, and the only place to hide for investors may be in small-cap oil stocks.

The world is adjusting to the next chapter – the post-pandemic period – and global oil demand is recovering powerfully, on pace to hit new all-time highs by early next year. 

At the same time, non-OPEC oil supply is falling, down over 2 million barrels per day from its 2019 peak. Even more to the point, non-OPEC oil supply growth will turn negative over coming years, according to new forecasts from the IEA.

That inflection will foster a gap between supply and demand with structural implications. By just 12 months from now, demand will encroach on total production potential for the first time in 160 years – since we first started ramping up the oil industry in the 19th century.

This may well become the most important investment theme over coming years. But it won’t just impact the fortunes of the world’s major integrated producers like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX). It will define the landscape for the entire market, and the biggest beneficiaries will likely be the small-cap oil players now trading at cheap levels.

With that in mind, we take a look at a few of the more interesting names in the space and cover some recent catalysts.

SilverBow Resources Inc (NYSE:SBOW) is a growth-oriented independent oil and gas company in the dead-center of what you might call the small-cap growth niche in the US shale energy space.

The company engages in the acquiring and developing assets in the Eagle Ford Shale.

SilverBow Resources Inc (NYSE:SBOW) recently announced it has entered into definitive agreements to acquire oil and gas assets in the Eagle Ford from an undisclosed seller. Acquisition Highlights include: All stock Transaction for approximately $33 million, consisting of approximately 1.5 million shares of SilverBow common stock, 45,000 total net acres in the Eagle Ford, bolstering SilverBow’s gas position in McMullen and Live Oak counties, while adding new oil positions in Atascosa, Lavaca, and Fayette counties, and April 2021 net production of approximately 1,580 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 39% liquids. Net oil production of 569 barrels per day

Sean Woolverton, SilverBow’s Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We continue to execute on accretive opportunities and bolster our balanced oil and gas portfolio. This marks the second acquisition we have announced since the beginning of August. Our first deal increased our high-return Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk locations, as well as incremental working interest in producing wellbores, in our La Mesa position. Today’s announcement expands our gas portfolio in the Western Eagle Ford, while also adding oil acreage in three new counties. Each transaction is accretive to Adjusted EBITDA and further reduces our pro forma leverage ratio(1) via the assets’ incremental cash flow. Our ability to use stock as consideration reflects the constructiveness of Eagle Ford partners to share in SilverBow’s long-term value creation.”

The stock has suffered a bit of late, with shares of SBOW taking a hit in recent action, down about -9% over the past week. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 13% in that time on strong overall action. 

SilverBow Resources Inc (NYSE:SBOW) managed to rope in revenues totaling $69.9M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 181.2%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($2.1M against $101.9M, respectively).

Viking Energy Group Inc (OTC US:VKIN) is an emerging small-cap player in the oil and gas space with assets located in North America in Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Viking also has firm financial backing from its majority owner, Camber Energy Inc (NYSEAMERICAN:CEI), which recently raised $15 million in non-toxic financing that is convertible well above current share pricing.

That suggests Viking has a lot of expansion opportunity here as well, which is a big factor in presenting the stock. Shares have started to heat up as it gets involved in carbon capture technology, which is a very nice addition to the narrative.

Viking Energy Group Inc (OTC US:VKIN), to expand on that point, recently entered into an Exclusive Intellectual Property License Agreement with ESG Clean Energy regarding ESG’s patent rights and know-how related to stationary electric power generation, including methods to utilize heat and capture carbon dioxide. This has the potential to catapult VKIN into a key position in the clean energy space.

According to the release, the ESG Clean Energy System is designed to generate clean electricity from internal combustion engines and utilize waste heat to capture ~ 100% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted from the engine without loss of efficiency, and in a manner to facilitate the production of precious commodities (e.g., distilled/ de-ionized water; UREA (NH4); ammonia (NH3); ethanol; and methanol) for sale.    

James Doris, President and Chief Executive Officer of Viking, commented, “In my view this transaction positions us as an industry leader in terms of being able to assist with the power generation needs of commercial and industrial organizations while at the same time helping them reduce their carbon footprint to satisfy regulatory requirements or to simply follow best ESG-practices. We are excited to be able to use the platform of Simson-Maxwell Ltd., our recently acquired majority-owned subsidiary, to promote the ESG Clean Energy System.”

Viking Energy Group Inc (OTC US:VKIN) is a small but growing oil play with improving financial metrics, and it should be taken seriously as a player in a space that could be heading for a major windfall. The company recently posted double-digit growth in revenues, current assets, and EBITDA for its calendar Q2, and its move to gain exposure to the carbon capture theme is likely to help it gain greater visibility, as evidenced by the stock’s recent 200% multi-week rally.

Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE:CPE) engages in the exploration, development, acquisition and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States.

The company focuses on unconventional oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin. 

Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE:CPE) recently announced an agreement to acquire the leasehold interests and related oil, gas, and infrastructure assets of Primexx Energy Partners and its affiliates. Primexx is a private oil and gas operator in the Delaware Basin with a contiguous footprint of 35,000 net acres in Reeves County and second quarter 2021 net production of approximately 18,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (“Boe/d”) (61% oil). The cash and stock transaction is valued at approximately $788 million[1], representing a headline purchase price multiple of approximately $43,800 per Boe/d, based on second quarter production.

Callon President and Chief Executive Officer Joe Gatto commented: “The Primexx transaction checks every operational and financial box on the list of compelling attributes of consolidation. The asset base adds substantial current oil production and a top-tier inventory to our Delaware portfolio, and fits squarely into our model of scaled, co-development of a multi-zone resource base. Our integrated, future development plans will benefit greatly from the combined Delaware scale and we expect to generate approximately 30% more adjusted free cash flow[2] from the third quarter of 2021 through year-end 2023 under our conservative planning price assumptions[3]. The infusion of over $550 million of equity from the acquisition and Kimmeridge’s exchange further heightens the overall benefits, immediately reducing leverage metrics and creating a visible path to net debt to adjusted EBITDA of below 2.0x next year.”

And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 7% in that time. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 22% in that time on strong overall action. 

Callon Petroleum Company (NYSE:CPE) managed to rope in revenues totaling $440.4M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 180.1%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($3.8M against $813.8M, respectively).

Other key stocks in the small-cap oil space include Range Resources Corp. (NYSE:RRC), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), SM Energy Co (NYSE:SM), and VanEck Oil Services ETF (NYSEARCA:OIH).

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